Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are expected to open with a downward bias on Wednesday amid weak macro numbers. India’s GDP growth for FY25 is projected at 6.4%, a marked slowdown from 8.2% in FY24. Gift Nifty at 23,770 signals a flattish to negative opening for Nifty.
Arsh Mogre, Economist Institutional Equities, PL Capital – Prabhudas Lilladher, said: Nominal GDP growth is expected at 9.7%, signalling that inflationary pressures remain entrenched. Agriculture is a standout performer, with growth estimated at 3.8%, driven by record kharif output and improved rabi sowing, a sharp recovery from 1.4% in FY24.
“However, industrial growth is projected to moderate to 6.2%, with manufacturing lagging at 5.3%, constrained by weak exports and slowing global demand. Private consumption is set to recover, with a 7.3% growth forecast, up from 4.0% in FY24, reflecting a revival in rural demand and improved consumer sentiment. Government spending, critical for driving growth amid private sector hesitancy, is projected to rise by 4.1%, recovering from 2.5% last year. Yet, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) is estimated to grow at 6.4%, a slowdown from 9.0%, raising questions about the sustainability of the investment momentum.
Sectorally, construction (+8.6%) and financial services (+7.3%) remain robust drivers, but trade and hotels (+5.8%) and public utilities (+6.8%) reflect deceleration, signalling uneven recovery dynamics. The external sector remains fragile, with imports forecast to grow by 9.9%, outpacing export growth of 5.9%, deepening the trade deficit and exposing vulnerabilities to external shocks,” he said.
According to him, Inflation and geopolitical uncertainties remain key risks. “While policymakers anticipate a continued recovery fueled by resilient rural demand and easing supply constraints, the broader economic narrative underscores the urgency for structural reforms. Accelerating private investment, bolstering manufacturing competitiveness and leveraging external tailwinds amid global headwinds are imperative to sustain India’s growth trajectory. Without decisive action, Union Budget FY25-26 risks being a transitional budget rather than a transformative one,” he further said.
Meanwhile, Asian stocks are mixed. While Korea and Singapore’s stocks eke out gains, equities in Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong have shipped.
The focus will be on the HMPV virus and India Inc.’s Q3 performance, which is expected to trickle in from next week.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said “with the news flow expected to continue around HMPV, we expect healthcare sector to remain in focus. Infact, for hospitals, we expect Q3FY25 profitability to improve due to addition of beds, higher volumes, and optimisation of the payer mix”.
Investors will watch out for India’s GDP data along with US non-manufacturing PMI and US Jobs data to be released later today. “ We expect markets to remain in a range amidst news flows over HMPV, pre-quarterly business updates, and take cues from the upcoming Q3 results,” Khemka added.
Source: www.thehindubusinessline.com