In just over two weeks, financial assumptions built over the years have been tested in the real world.
In February, I wrote that cash is not a buzzword. It is a discipline. Working capital pressure across the GCC was already visible. It was structural. But most businesses were not acting on it.
On 28 February, when these developments began, I was in India.
What I saw there, and what I saw when I returned to the UAE on 10 March, made one thing clear. The shift had already begun.
In just over two weeks, what years of discussion could not achieve happened almost overnight. Cash management became immediate, real, and impossible to ignore.
This is not a gradual shift.
This is a reset.
Prices and Pressure Have Moved Together
The signals are clear.
Oil prices moved up quickly. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed. Insurance costs jumped within days. Airlines rerouted flights, affecting both passenger and cargo movement.
Individually, these are disruptions.
Together, they change how business works.
This is what risk looks like when it becomes real. Not in reports, but in higher costs, slower payments, and assumptions that no longer hold.
What I Saw When I Came Back
By the time I returned to the UAE, the impact was already visible.
Insurance terms were being revised. Freight costs were rising. Contracts were being renegotiated. Some companies had already started cutting costs.
But the bigger shift was in behaviour.
Decisions slowed down. Approvals took longer. Conversations became more cautious.
And beneath all this, one issue stood out.
Cash was not moving.
Payments were delayed. Credit cycles stretched. Even businesses with demand were under pressure because money was not flowing through the system.
The issue is not demand.
It is a cash movement.
Policy Has Stepped In. The Real Test Begins
On 17 March, the Central Bank introduced a Financial Institution Resilience Package of over Dh1 trillion. Liquidity is available. Banks are stable. Credit support continues.
This is a strong response.
But liquidity at the top does not automatically flow through the system.
Payments are delayed. Cash is being conserved. Commitments are slowing.
The effect is immediate.
Suppliers are impacted. Smaller businesses come under stress. Growth slows.
Liquidity exists.
But it is not circulating.
That is the real bottleneck.
We Have Seen This Before in a Different Form
The closest comparison is 2020.
During COVID, everything stopped. Revenue dropped. Supply chains broke.
At Emitac, we made one decision early.
We focused on cash.
We tightened working capital. We pushed collections. Every decision came down to one question. Does this strengthen cash?
We walked away from deals that did not convert into cash.
But it worked.
We built reserves during uncertainty. When markets stabilised, we were stronger. The results that followed proved it.
The lesson is simple.
Do not wait for a crisis to manage cash.
Manage cash so you can survive one.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters So Much
The Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a strategic concern.
It is a business reality.
When movement slows, costs rise. Deliveries get delayed. Supply chains stretch.
And eventually, cash flow is impacted.
This is how global developments show up in business.
Not through revenue first.
Through cost, delay, and pressure on cash.
The Real Risk Is Not Revenue. It Is Cash
Businesses do not fail because they stop selling.
They fail because cash stops coming in.
Payments slow. Costs rise before pricing adjusts. Funding becomes tighter.
What felt manageable before becomes difficult.
Revenue shows performance.
Cash determines survival.
What Has Changed for CFOs
The role of finance leaders has changed very quickly.
The focus is no longer just growth.
It is control.
The questions are simple :
• How much cash do we really have?
• Can we rely on our inflows?
• What happens if this situation continues?
• Which of our assumptions are no longer true?
Those who were already asking these questions are in control. Others are reacting.
Three Things That Matter Now
1. Know your cash clearly.
2. Understand your risks.
3. Focus on revenue that converts into cash.
This Is Not New. It Is a Reminder
This is not new.
It is a reminder.
The UAE has shown resilience. Systems are working. Markets are open. That reflects preparation.
The same applies to businesses.
You do not build resilience during a crisis.
You reveal it.
The skyline may be under pressure.
But the fundamentals have not changed.
Cash was always king.
Now it is impossible to ignore.